McCain predicts Iraq war over by 2013

Sen. John McCain envisions his first-term achievements during a speech in Columbus, Ohio, Thursday.
Sen. John McCain envisions that by 2013, the Iraq war will be won, but the threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan won’t be eliminated, even though Osama bin Laden will have been captured or killed.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee made both statements in a speech in which he envisions the state of affairs at the end of his first term if he is elected president. “What I want to do today is take a little time to describe what I would hope to have achieved at the end of my first term as president. I cannot guarantee I will have achieved these things,” McCain said in Columbus, Ohio. McCain’s speech was unusual — and somewhat risky — in that it laid out benchmarks on which he could be judged. “It certainly was an ambitious speech,” said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst, noting that many of the things McCain mentioned will be “very tough things for a president to accomplish.” “But perhaps the key point that he made was the tone and tenor of his presidency when he said near the end of his speech, ‘If I’m elected president, the era of the permanent campaign will end. The era of problem solving will begin,’ ” Schneider said. “What’s interesting about that is that precisely echoes what Barack Obama is talking about in his campaign,” Schneider said, referring to the Democratic presidential candidate. The Arizona senator said he believes that the United States will have a smaller military presence in Iraq that will not play a direct combat role, and he predicts that al Qaeda in Iraq will be defeated. Watch McCain say most troops will be home from Iraq by 2013 » “By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and -women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom. “The Iraq war has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension,” McCain said.

Don’t Miss
Clinton: It’d be ‘terrible mistake’ to pick McCain over Obama

McCain: Clean energy a ‘national security issue’

McCain outlines ‘green’ agenda

The violence in Iraq will persist, the candidate believes, but it will be “spasmodic and much reduced.” But civil war will be prevented, armed militias will be disbanded, security forces will become “professional and competent,” and the government will be able to impose “its authority in every province of Iraq” and properly defend its borders. Speaking with reporters after his address, McCain insisted that “we are winning and we will win” in Iraq but said he’s not assigning a date for success. “It could be next month; it could be next year. It could three years from now. It could be, but I’m confident that we will have victory in Iraq, but I’m certainly not putting a date on it. ” McCain said victory means “our troops come home with honor and we do maintain a security relationship … if viewed necessary by both governments.” He said withdrawing troops would basically be setting “a date for surrender.” Responding to the speech, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton said in a statement that McCain had offered “the same Bush policies that have weakened our military, our national security, and our standing in the world. Our country cannot afford more empty promises on Iraq.” McCain said he also believes that the “threat from a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan will be greatly reduced but not eliminated” and that U.S. and NATO forces will remain in the country “to help finish the job, and continue operations against the remnants of al Qaeda.” If he is elected, he said, he would hope that Pakistan will work with the United States in deploying counter-insurgency tactics in the al Qaeda-laden tribal regions. McCain envisions that Osama bin Laden and his chief lieutenants, would be captured or killed. “There is no longer any place in the world al Qaeda can consider a safe haven,” McCain said. He also believes that in 2013, there still will not have been a “major terrorist attack in the United States since September 11, 2001.” Other milestones McCain hopes to see at the end of what would be his first term are: Witnessing Russia and China cooperating in “pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and North Korea to discontinue its own.” Significantly increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps, which will be “better equipped and trained to defend us.” The application of “stiff diplomatic and economic pressure” by the United States — acting in concert with a newly formed League of Democracies — to cause Sudan to agree to a multinational peacekeeping force, with NATO countries providing logistical and air support, to stop the genocide in Darfur. Several years of robust economic growth. Taxpayers filing under a flat tax. The world food crisis ending, low inflation and a “much-improved” quality of life “not only in our country but in some of the most impoverished countries around the world.” More accessible health care for Americans and an easing of pressure on Medicare because of lower health care costs. A United States well on its way to “independence from foreign sources of oil.” A Social Security system that is solvent, does not reduce benefits for those nearing retirement and includes individual retirement accounts The confirmation of “scores of judges” to the federal district and appellate courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court. A secure southern border for the United States after “tremendous improvements to border security infrastructure and increases in the border patrol, and vigorous prosecution of companies that employ illegal aliens.” McCain also made veiled criticism of President Bush when he said, “I will exercise my veto if I believe legislation passed by Congress is not in the nation’s best interests, but I will not subvert the purpose of legislation I have signed by making statements that indicate I will enforce only the parts of it I like.” Bush has made a practice of issuing signing statements that outline portions of legislation he will not enforce or abide by because he felt that they infringed on his executive powers.

McCain pledged to work with members of either party to make the country safer and more prosperous. “And I won’t care who gets the credit,” he said.

Share

California man kills five family members, himself


Police are investigating whether or what family issues might have prompted a California man to shoot six of his family members — killing five — before committing suicide. His wife was critically wounded.

Share

Can Obama Win Russia’s Cooperation on Iran?

Can Obama Win Russias Cooperation on Iran?

Don’t expect President Barack Obama to look into President Dmitri Medvedev’s eyes and “get a sense of his soul” when he meets his Russian counterpart on Wednesday at the G-20 summit in London. That was what then President George W. Bush claimed to have done during his first meeting with Vladimir Putin early in 2001, but Obama and Medvedev have more immediate and practical concerns: Washington urgently needs Moscow’s help in achieving one of its key foreign policy priorities — containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But Russia will cooperate only if it’s satisfied that Obama has abandoned the more confrontational approach of the Bush Administration toward Iran.

Russia’s centrality to the issue lies in the facts that it is building Iran’s civilian nuclear reactor at Bushehr and it is the Islamic Republic’s key supplier of high-tech weaponry. Moscow’s support is also critical to the U.S.’s efforts to use sanctions to pressure Iran to back down on the nuclear issue. Wednesday’s meeting between Obama and Medvedev could provide an important indicator of whether Washington will get the help it seeks.

According to Russia’s ambassador to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, Moscow will use the Obama-Medvedev meeting as an opportunity to assess how far the new Administration plans to go in pursuit of Obama’s promised “new beginning” with Iran. The answer could shape Moscow’s decisions with respect to supplying key military technology to Tehran.

“All the issues of Iran will be decided on what we have more of in our talks — the hope for peace, or the ‘hope’ of threats,” Rogozin tells TIME.

Iran has negotiated an agreement for Russia to supply it with the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which is far more accurate, and at a far greater range, than Iran’s current air defenses are and would greatly enhance Iran’s capacity to ward off a pre-emptive Israeli or U.S. air strike aimed at its nuclear facilities. The State Department’s key adviser on Iran, Dennis Ross, warned last month that Israel could be tempted to strike before the delivery of S-300 missiles .

But, says Rogozin, Russia could hold back on delivering the enhanced air defenses if Obama signals a change in Iran policy. “The best thing that Washington can offer [Russia] is realigning its own attitude with Iran,” says Rogozin. Moscow will be encouraged by Tuesday’s news that Obama’s special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Akhoundzadeh at a conference in the Hague on Tuesday and that the two had agreed to “remain in touch.”

Russia, in fact, appears to already have put the S-300 delivery to Iran on hold while it waits to see what approach Obama’s Administration adopts in dealing with Tehran’s nuclear program. “On a political level, [the Russians] have put the sale on hold — that’s new,” says Cliff Kupchan, an expert on Russia and Iran at the Eurasia Group in Washington.

Rogozin sees Iran’s need for missiles as being related to Washington’s own stance. “The harsher the U.S. policy is toward Iran, the harsher the response is to the U.S. and the whole world,” he says. “If you drive into a corner a small nation, [its people] will do anything they can to protect their security.” Yet although Russia has long defended Iran’s right to develop its civilian nuclear program, Kupchan claims that officials in Moscow were taken aback when Iran tested a medium-range missile last month. Still, Russia has been unwilling to abandon the S-300 contract. Rogozin indicates that Russia is waiting until “after the first meeting of the two Presidents, and then we will decide on our plans.”

Besides a new stance toward Tehran, Obama can offer Russia two further inducements to cooperate on Iran: a tacit delay — perhaps for years — in plans to deploy a U.S. missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, and plans to extend NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine. Both issues are on the table at this week’s NATO summit in France and Germany, although with no link to Iran. Indeed, Iran is not the only issue on which the U.S. and its allies need Russian help: Moscow’s cooperation may be the key element in securing alternative supply routes for NATO troops in Afghanistan, given the ease with which Taliban-aligned forces are able to attack the supply lines through Pakistan on which the mission currently depends.

Even with concessions on the missile shield and on Ukraine and Georgia, Russia remains deeply suspicious of NATO. “There is still no mutual understanding or trust between us,” Rogozin says. “Russia should become a reliable partner to both the U.S. and NATO, but for that, Russia needs to be respected in both Washington and Brussels.” Moscow would prefer to reduce the alliance’s footprint not only on its southern flank in Georgia and Ukraine but also on its western frontier with Poland and the Baltic states — although any reversal of the integration of those countries into NATO would render the alliance itself meaningless. So the relationship is likely to remain testy, even if it becomes more cooperative. “We are not a naïve people, but we feel a lot of hope,” says Rogozin. “We are optimistic.”
See pictures of people around the world watching Obama’s Inauguration.
Cast your votes for the TIME 100.

Share

Carlos Santana to rock Vegas ‘Joint’

Santana will not play any other shows west of the Mississippi River over the next two years.
Guitarist Carlos Santana signed on as the first rock ‘n’ roll resident artist at the Las Vegas Hard Rock Hotel and Casino’s new concert hall, The Joint.

The two-year deal calls for Santana to play 36 shows a year, starting May 27, the hotel said. The Joint, which holds 4,000, opens next month with Paul McCartney in a show that sold out earlier this month in just seven seconds. Santana said his show — “Supernatural Santana: A Trip Through the Hits” — will “mix up a little practical spirituality with a rebel-from-the-street vibe, and with lots of incredible music.” “My wish is for it to be a night that will move you to dance, to cry, to laugh and to feel the totality and fullness of being alive,” Santana said. Santana, who has sold 90 million records over the past 40 years, is credited with blending American rock with Latin jazz. Santana’s deal is exclusive, meaning he will play no other shows west of the Mississippi River over the next two years, according to the news release announcing it. Santana’s residency is produced by AEG Live, the same company that brought Celine Dion, Elton John, Bette Midler and Cher to The Colosseum at Caesars Palace. “Now we are setting the standard for rock ‘n’ roll residencies with this new deal,” said John Meglen, AEG Live president.

Share

Former Argentine President Raul Alfonsin dies

Alfonsin, right, arrives at the house of government in Buenos Aires in January 2002.
Former Argentine President Raul Alfonsin, who led Argentina from military to civilian rule, has died, his doctor said Tuesday. He was 82.

Dr. Alberto Sadler announced Alfonsin’s death on government television. He died of lung cancer, which was diagnosed in 2007. “He fought for all Argentines,” said Mario Losada, an ex-senator with Alfonsin’s party, the Radical Party. “He was an authentic and absolute democrat. He paid a cost in preserving the institution, a very high cost … Alfonsin, unfortunately, died but he saw his work completed.” The lawyer was elected to the presidency in 1983, when he inherited an economy crippled by runaway inflation and a country whose international image had been hurt by its defeat by Britain in the 1982 Falklands War. He moved to bring to justice those responsible for the disappearance of thousands of people during his predecessor’s reign in what was called “the dirty war,” but his moves were criticized by some as insufficient. His failure to stabilize the economy and control inflation was blamed for his loss to Carlos Menem in 1989. National days of mourning were declared through Thursday, during which the country’s flag will be flown at half staff over government buildings.

Share

North Korea’s frontier a bamboo curtain

Chinese border guards patrol in Jilin province across from the North Korean border on March 21, 2009.
North Korea, formally called the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, is also known as the Hermit Kingdom for a good reason.

For decades, it has been shrouded by a veil of secrecy that has prevented us from better understanding this important nation. As journalists we seek out the realities of life there, beyond the myths and hype, but that is difficult because the DPRK is generally inaccessible to journalists. The gap between reality and illusion remains profound. Journalists, such as the two Americans being detained in North Korea, do travel to the border between China and North Korea to get a sense of what life is like in the isolated nation of 22 million people. The circumstances surrounding the journalists’ arrest are still unclear. “North Korea is such a difficult country to enter for a foreign reporter that the temptation to slip across the frozen river border is considerable,” said Former CNN correspondent Mike Chinoy, author of “Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis.” “If that’s what they did, however, it was extremely foolhardy and really pushing their luck.” China and North Korea share a 1,415-kilometer (880-mile) border that mainly follows two rivers. The Yalu River defines the border on the northwest, the Tumen River on the northeast. By land, the two countries are linked by seven road crossings and four railway points.

Don’t Miss
Report: North Korea planning to put American reporters on trial

Image shows North Korea rocket on launch pad

N. Korea defends right to ‘explore space’ amid missile claim

In-depth:  North Korea: Nuclear tension

Over the years, I have visited three towns on the Chinese side of the border. From a narrow river crossing at the border town of Tumen, Koreans cross on foot and in trucks. Those going back into North Korea carry bags full of food and household wares, even bicycles. Some of those coming into China ferry logs and minerals. From across the Yalu River in China’s Dandong City in October of 2006, I had a glimpse of Sinuiju, a North Korean border town of some 350,000 people. Using a long camera lens, I saw school children learn to roller skate, and residents celebrating what looked like a wedding. Still the city’s decrepit appearance hinted at stagnation and isolation. It was a stark contrast from the Chinese city, which was ablaze in neon lights and a bustling commerce and trade. North Korea’s public face is one of smiling children, clean streets, manicured gardens, spectacular scenery and a stoic people united under the aegis of Kim Jong Il, known among Koreans as the “Dear Leader.” I saw it up close twice, in 1996 and 2002, when I had the chance to visit the most reclusive nation on earth. We were typically greeted by polite officials and smiling children and invited to watch spectacular performances with a cast of thousands. North Korea, however, remains isolated, diplomatically and economically, led by an erratic leadership that behaves out of fear and insecurity. Diplomatic sources in Beijing suggest that China is getting fed up with North Korea’s inability to preserve social stability and with its erratic behavior in the multi-national efforts to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program. Publicly, however, China sticks to the official line, often calling the two nations’ ties as close as “lips and teeth” — one cannot function without the other. In my two visits to North Korea, I have detected conflicting signs — one, of social instability and another of a tentative desire to experiment with reforms. In 2002, the government tolerated some quasi-private businesses, raised civil servants’ salaries and deregulated prices of some commodities. But much of these tentative efforts to change seem to have been aborted and the country remains isolated and poor. What emerges is a nation, now considered a nuclear threat, desperately seeking respect and economic aid. That picture is now intertwined with the two detained U.S. journalists, Chinoy said. “It will be interesting to see how the case is handled. North Korea has been in a generally more bellicose mood lately,” said Chinoy, who is currently a senior fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy. “The concern is that this incident could get caught up in the bigger picture of heightened tension between the north and the U.S. and the north and south. If it is not swiftly resolved, it will add to the complexity of the situation facing [U.S. President Barack] Obama, where he is under pressure from Seoul, Tokyo and some in Washington to get tough, while trying to find a way to get diplomacy with the North going again.” In recent years, waves of North Korean refugees have fled into China seeking food, jobs and freedom. In the border cities of Tumen, Yanji and Dandong, these refugees tell of misery and persecution. They live under the protection of relatives, friends and human rights activists. Here, people speak of a Korean “underground railways” — a network that smuggles desperate people across the border and eventually out of China.

China is struggling to keep out the hundreds of North Korean immigrants and refugees, but stopping the exodus remains a tall order. A fundamental solution, analysts suggest, lies not in China but in North Korea, where many people are running away from humanitarian disasters and political persecution.

Share

A Lion Called Christian: Two Men and Their Very Large Cat

A Lion Called Christian: Two Men and Their Very Large Cat

A Lion Called Christian: The True Story of the Remarkable Bond Between Two Friends and a Lion
By Anthony Bourke and John Rendall
221 pages; Broadway Books

The Gist:
In 1969, two flamboyantly dressed, long-haired hippies named Anthony Bourke and John Rendall purchased a lion cub from London’s upscale department store Harrods — which, at the time, traded in exotic animals — and brought him to live in their Chelsea furniture store in the heart of Swinging London. Christian lived in the store, aptly named Sophisticat, for five months. He played well with children, was litter-trained, and only ruined the store’s furniture by accident. But even the most domesticated lion is still too wild for London, so Bourke and Rendall embarked on the long, arduous task of rehabilitating their oversized housecat into the wild. With the help of lion expert George Adamson, they flew Christian to Kenya and helped him establish his own lion pride. A year later, Bourke and Rendall returned to Kenya to visit their lion. A video of their encounter and what happened next has been viewed over 10 million times on YouTube.

Christian recognized the two men immediately. He wrapped his paws around their legs, nuzzled his nose to theirs, and rubbed his body against theirs the way kittens do when they want to be scratched. One watch of the video will explain why his story still captivates people 38 years later.

Highlight Reel:
1. On living in London: “Late in the afternoon, Christian would sit regally on the furniture in the shop window, in the spotlight and watch the activities of the World’s End. He was the star attraction, and the people, particularly children, loved him and were very proud of him. He seemed to belong to all of them. In the window he drew appreciative crowds of regular admirers or astonished newcomers. These were happy hours. If there were too many people and his view was obscured, he simply changed windows. Several motorists, seeing Christian unselfconsciously displaying himself, bumped into the cars in front. And a conversation was overheard between a child and his mother on a passing bus: ‘Mummy, there was a lion in that shop window!’ ‘Don’t be ridiculous. If you don’t stop this lying, I’ll get your father to thrash you.'”

2. On the 1971 reunion captured on video: “Shortly afterwards Christian appeared at the top — about 75 yards away from us. He stared hard at us for a few seconds, and then slowly moved closer for a good look. He stared intently. He looked marvelous, and up on the rocks, he didn’t appear much bigger. We couldn’t wait any longer and called him. He immediately started to run down towards us. Grunting with excitement, this enormous lion jumped all over us, but he was very gentle … Christian showed his affection in exactly the same way [as before], had all his old tricks and some new ones … We gave him enormous respect and were a little less frivolous with him — a much more mature lion, but still most entertaining.”

3. On what happened to Christian: “Early in 1973, Christian crossed the Tana River, going north in the direction of the Meru National Park, a much more attractive area and a good hunting ground. In a national park, animals were safer from poachers, hunters, and tribesmen with cattle. Sadly, George [Adamson] finally stop counting the days and months of Christian’s absence from [his home], and he was never seen again. For the next few years, we waited for any news. We liked to imagine that he had established a territory and pride of his own a long way away, too far to return and visit George. We hoped that he would have lived another ten years and that his descendants live in Kenya today. He had miraculously returned to Africa, survived the most dangerous years, and was big and strong. We could not regret anything.”

The Lowdown:
Lions live somewhere between 15-20 years, depending on their environment and the dangers they encounter. Although no one knows what happened to him after 1973, we can be certain that Christian left the world long ago. But thanks to YouTube and this book, Rendall and Bourke have been able to retell the story themselves. Packed with photos and amusing anecdotes — one time he walked in on someone showering! — A Lion Called Christian is an unabashedly stirring tale of a rare bond formed between humans and an animal. It is not overly sentimental or cloying because it doesn’t need to be. To read this book is to feel, for a while, that Christian never left.

The Verdict:
Read

Read “Do We Love Our Dogs More than People”

See TIME’s top 10 animal stories of the past year

Share

Why Toyota Can Finally Take Over the U.S. Car Market

Why Toyota Can Finally Take Over the U.S. Car Market

Toyota’s share of the U.S. light vehicle market is 18% and Honda’s is 10%. GM’s share of its home market is about 22%. Fifty-five years ago, the No.1 U.S. car company had 54% of the U.S. market. By this time next year, GM’s piece of the American car pie could drop another 50%, bringing it closer to Honda’s.

It seems improbable that GM could lose that many customers so fast. But, Rick Wagoner, recently departed CEO of the company told Congress last December that consumers won’t buy vehicles from a bankrupt company. Some of the people at the hearings figured Wagoner was bluffing, trying to convince Washington that a Chapter 11 filing would bring an end to the firm’s ability to market its products because customers could turn to cars made by competitors which were in reasonably good financial shape. But, most research done recently indicates that Wagoner was probably right, at least right enough that GM’s sales could be clobbered by consumers who believe that their warranties will be worthless and that their dealers will disappear.

A new Consumer Reports survey shows that 78% of people polled are unlikely to buy a car from a bankrupt car company. Nearly two-thirds said they were highly unlikely to make a purchase under those circumstances. Another recent study by market research firm CNW polled consumers who plan to buy a new car within six months. More than 8o% of the respondents said they would switch brands if the vehicle they wanted came from an automaker that went bankrupt. A third survey, this one from Rasmussen, showed that 51% of consumer said they would not buy a car from a manufacturer in Chapter 11. While the poll results are not the same, they point to a similar conclusion. GM and Chrysler will lose a tremendous amount of business if they are operating in bankruptcy.

The government has gone so far as to say that it will guarantee warranties on GM and Chrysler cars. To quote the President directly “Let me say this as plainly as I can. If you buy a car from Chrysler or General Motors, you will be able to get your car serviced and repaired just like always. Your warranty will be safe. In fact, it will be safer than it has ever been. Because starting today, the United States will stand behind your warranty.” Unfortunately, many people don’t understand what it means for the government to back a warranty if dealers close. Many others won’t have heard or read about Obama’s speech. But, most of all, a lot of consumers don’t want to be troubled. They can buy a car from Toyota, or Honda, or Nissan and not have to consider the matter at all.

After years of poor management or bad luck, GM and Chrysler have reached the point where they are not viable as independent companies. They need U.S. aid whether they remain “solvent” or have to get court protection. Almost every American has seen that news on TV or read about it in the paper. It will be hard to imagine what consumers will think when they find out that a company which was the largest corporation in the U.S. for years is bankrupt. It is like finding out that the telephone company has gone out of business.

The American consumer has already lost faith in his own ability to buy things. He knows he might lose his job, he might not qualify for a loan, that his house is worthless, and that the local Sears was closed. If he wants to return something he bought at the store, he will need to drive 50 miles to do it. People who have trouble buying things that they need probably do not want to have their problems compounded by worrying about what they should do if something they buy suddenly breaks.

Toyota has played a long waiting game. It played well. It made better cars than U.S. companies. It kept labor costs low. It built a reputation for durable and dependable products. The Japanese car company is being hurt by the global car sales downturn, but it never had the labor cost or corporate debt problems that plagued GM. It has the balance sheet to make it through the crisis. Maybe Toyota has been lucky for decades or maybe Toyota was just smart.

Whether it is due to wits or good fortune, Toyota will become the No.1 car company in the U.S. sometime in the next year, and an American car operation will never hold that position again

— Douglas A. McIntyre

See the 50 worst cars of all time.
For constant business updates, go to 24/7wallst.com.

Share

Despite Naval Patrols, Somalia’s Pirates Are Busier Than Ever

Despite Naval Patrols, Somalias Pirates Are Busier Than Ever

Just when shipping companies thought it was safe to go back in the water — off the Horn of Africa in particular — Somali pirates last week nabbed two large chemical tankers within 24 hours, despite the presence of a bevy of Western and other navies prowling in search of the buccaneers.

The Greek-owned MV Nipayia was snagged last Wednesday, followed within a day by the capture of the Norwegian-owned MV Bow-Asir. The attacks, which occurred at 380 and 490 nautical miles offshore, showed a willingness by the pirates to operate at great distances from their lairs along the Somali coastline. While international navies have heralded the successes of their antipiracy patrols of recent months, last week’s captures — and the piracy statistics for the past three months — don’t offer much cause for comfort to the shipping industry. Last year, according to a U.N. report, there were 111 attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Aden corridor, which marked a 200% increase over the previous year’s figures. Now, despite the presence of ships from more than 20 of the world’s navies in the Gulf of Aden, the International Maritime Bureau says there have been 51 attacks in the first three months of 2009 alone. And the international shipping association BIMCO says piracy attacks have spread to ships traveling nowhere near the Gulf of Aden.

“Indeed, very recent events would seem to confirm BIMCO’s worst fears,” the group said of the latest attacks in an advisory to its members. The American Forces Press Service later filed a story quoting an anonymous U.S. official as saying that the wider field of attack on which the pirates are now operating presents a “monumental challenge” to antipiracy efforts.

Still, analysts and antipiracy advocates see some reasons for optimism. While the number of attacks has gone up, their rate of success at actually seizing control of vessels has declined. In December, 1 in every 5 attacks was successful; the data for March suggests that only 1 in every 10 pirate raids succeeded.

The lower success rate, according to Michael Howlett, divisional director for the International Maritime Bureau in London, “is due to the naval presence, and also the ships know this is a high-risk area, and they have certain [countermeasures] in place.”

More sobering, though, is the possibility that many of the attacks failed because of the bad weather that is typical in the region during the first three months of the year. Attacks off Somalia typically increase in the second quarter of the year, as sailing conditions improve.

The rising incidence of attacks is a clear indication that the pirates are as powerful as ever onshore in Somalia and are growing bolder and more determined as a result of such high-profile ransom payments as the ones that secured the release of the oil tanker Sirius Star and the freighter MV Faina, which had been carrying battle tanks bound for Kenya.

The U.N. report also highlighted just how difficult fighting Somali piracy will be by confirming suspicions that the pirates are almost certainly in league with what passes for the government in the breakaway Somali region of Puntland. “It is widely acknowledged that some of these groups now rival established Somali authorities in terms of their military capabilities and resource,” U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in the report. Not that Somalia has much by way of “established authorities” to speak of. That’s why some of the navies that have captured pirates trying to seize shipping have handed the suspects over to Kenya, which has agreements with the U.S. and U.K. to try piracy suspects.

As international efforts to protect shipping around the Gulf of Aden have grown, so have the pirates adapted their tactics. Andrew Mwangura, head of the East African Seafarers Assistance Program, notes that the pirates are moving their operations farther south along the East African coast to avoid the international warships. Sailors are also becoming concerned about greater levels of danger to themselves: in the past, the crews of hijacked ships were relatively sure they’d survive the ordeal precisely because the pirates were so invincible — all the captives had to do was remain calm and cooperative while the shipping company negotiated the ransom. But now that the pirates are being confronted by foreign navies — and sometimes arrested or killed — they are using more force and the danger to their hostages has increased, Mwangura says.

“They are coming to be more violent than they were in the past,” Mwangura tells TIME. “I think they have changed their modus operandi. Now they realize it’s do or die.”
See TIME’s Pictures of the Week.
Cast your votes for the TIME 100.

Share

Will a Spanish Judge Bring Bush-Era Figures to Justice?

Will a Spanish Judge Bring Bush-Era Figures to Justice?

Chile’s Pinochet. Argentina’s Scilingo. Guatemala’s Rios Montt. To the roster of international figures whom Spanish investigative judge Baltasar Garzón has sought to bring to justice, the name of Gonzales may soon be added — as in Alberto Gonzales, former U.S. Attorney General and one of the legal minds behind the Bush Administration’s justification of the use of torture at Guantánamo.

On March 17, a group of lawyers representing the Association for the Dignity of Prisoners, a Spanish human-rights group, filed a complaint in Spain’s National Court against Gonzales and five other former officials, including Under Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith and the Justice Department’s John Yoo, for violating international law by creating a legal framework that permitted the torture of suspected terrorists. On March 29, the complaint became public after Garzón, who had been assigned the case, sent it to the prosecutor’s office for review, a step seen by many familiar with the court as a sign that the judge will soon agree to investigate the case. “It’s still a bit early,” says Almudena Bernabeu, international attorney with the San Francisco–based Center for Justice and Accountability, which has brought claims before the National Court on behalf of victims of human-rights abuse in Guatemala and El Salvador. “But it’s a great step.”

It is a step on a path that Garzón and other judges in the same court have been down many times before. Spain’s National Court is perhaps the world’s leading practitioner of universal jurisdiction, a legal principle that holds that in crimes of exceptional gravity, the right to render judgment is not limited to the country where the crime was committed. It’s a principle that helped Garzón famously order the arrest and extradition of Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet in 1998 and that seven years later helped convict Argentine military officer Adolfo Scilingo of crimes against humanity. The National Court has also heard cases against high-ranking Chinese officials on behalf of Tibet and Falun Gong, and against Israel for its attacks in Gaza.

For Gonzalo Boye, one of the lawyers who filed this latest complaint, the legal cover that Gonzales, Yoo and other possible defendants provided for waterboarding and other abuses at Guantánamo warrants the international investigation. “Bush made a political decision based on the advice he was getting from his judicial advisers,” says Boye. “And what his advisers were telling him to do is a very serious crime.”

No doubt there’s a bit of strategy in aiming at Yoo and Feith . “Politically, going after lower-level officials is a lot more palatable than going against a former President and Vice President,” says international-law professor Robert Goldman, director of the War Crimes Research Office at American University. “Plus, there’s a lot more direct evidence when it comes to Yoo, Bybee and Addington. Their fingerprints are all over these policies.”

But direct evidence or no, can the case have anything more than symbolic impact “That’s the toughest question,” admits Bernabeu. “It’s hard to believe we would see them face justice in a Spanish courtroom.” Indeed, when Spain’s National Court brought charges against U.S. military personnel for willfully firing on the Hotel Palestine in Baghdad, where journalists were known to stay, and killing Spanish cameraman José Couso, the three indicted officers simply ignored the subpoena. The court later dropped the charges on appeal.

That’s not to say, however, that there won’t be an impact should the case go forward. Several human-rights organizations in the U.S. are said to be preparing their own charges against the authors and signatories of the so-called Torture Memos, and their cases may be strengthened by the mere fact that a Spanish investigation has begun. “It’s ironic that we sometimes have to use international courts to encourage national ones to take action, but that’s the way it works,” says Bernabeu. “And having a national court take action can be a way of stopping things from happening elsewhere in the world.”

Furthermore, if Garzón subpoenas the lawyers and they fail to appear in his court, he will then most likely issue an international arrest warrant for each, just as he did for Pinochet, who was subsequently taken into custody while convalescing after back surgery in Britain. “If I were these fellows, I’d be very careful about where I traveled,” notes Goldman.

But Boye believes the legal complaint will have far more than symbolic effect. Asked whether he expected to see Gonzales or others in a Spanish court or an American one, he replied, “I expect to see them in court, full stop. You know why Because I believe in the American system of justice.”

See TIME’s Pictures of the Week.

Read a TIME story on Gonzales.

Share